Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
